Predictive uncertainty in climate change impact on floods


Booij, Martijn J. and Huisjes, Martijn and Hoekstra, Arjen Y. (2007) Predictive uncertainty in climate change impact on floods. In: Eva Boegh & Harald Kunstmann & Thorsten Wagener & Alan Hall & Luis Bastidas & Stewart Franks & Hoshin Gupta & Dan Rosbjerg & John Schaake (Eds.), Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty for sustainable water resources management. IAHS publication (313). IAHS Press, pp. 221-228. ISBN 9781901502091

open access
Abstract:It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters.
Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).
Item Type:Book Section
Copyright:© 2007 IAHS
Engineering Technology (CTW)
Research Group:
Link to this item:
Export this item as:BibTeX
HTML Citation
Reference Manager


Repository Staff Only: item control page

Metis ID: 240415