Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts
on floods


Booij, Martijn J. and Huisjes, Martijn and Hoekstra, Arjen Y. (2007) Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts
on floods.
In: Eva Boegh & Harald Kunstmann & Thorsten Wagener & Alan Hall & Luis Bastidas & Stewart Franks & Hoshin Gupta & Dan Rosbjerg & John Schaake (Eds.), Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. IAHS publication (313). IAHS Press, pp. 221-228. ISBN INVALID978-1-90150278-09-1

open access
Abstract:It is crucial for flood management that information about the
impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein
becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from
different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess
the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe.
A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed
climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be
represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and
incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters.
Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This
increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The
predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties
in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model
parameters (about 50%).
Item Type:Book Section
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Engineering Technology (CTW)
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