Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts
on floods


Share/Save/Bookmark

Booij, Martijn J. and Huisjes, Martijn and Hoekstra, Arjen Y. (2007) Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts
on floods.
In: Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. IAHS publication (313). IAHS Press, pp. 221-228. ISBN INVALID978-1-90150278-09-1

open access
[img]
Preview
PDF
738kB
Abstract:It is crucial for flood management that information about the
impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein
becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from
different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess
the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe.
A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed
climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be
represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and
incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters.
Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This
increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The
predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties
in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model
parameters (about 50%).
Item Type:Book Section
Copyright:© IAHS
Faculty:
Engineering Technology (CTW)
Research Group:
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/publications/78710
Official URL:http://iahs.info/redbooks/a313/iahs_313_0221.htm
Export this item as:BibTeX
EndNote
HTML Citation
Reference Manager

 

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Metis ID: 240415