Appropriate spatial scales to achieve model output
uncertainty goals


Booij, Martijn J. and Melching, Charles S. (2008) Appropriate spatial scales to achieve model output
uncertainty goals.
In: Xiaohong Chen & Yongqin Chen & Jun Xia & Hailun Zhang (Eds.), Hydrological Sciences for Managing Water Resources in the Asian Developing World. IAHS publication (319). IAHS Press, pp. 57-67. ISBN 9781901502442

open access
Abstract:Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined
using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model
inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model
output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships
between scales and variable statistics. It is extended with two different
uncertainty propagation methods, the mean-value first-order second-moment
(MFOSM) method and Monte Carlo analysis, and backward uncertainty
propagation to obtain appropriate scales based on two uncertainty criteria. The
methodology is applied to three flood estimation methods. The application to
the River Meuse basin in western Europe revealed that the methodology can
be used for the considered flood estimation methods under similar
climatological and geographical conditions. The results showed different
relative input and parameter uncertainties for the different flood estimation
methods (3–6%) for a specific maximum output uncertainty (25%) and
different appropriate spatial scales for the dominant variables
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