Risks in hydrological modelling due to uncertainties in
discharge determination


Booij, Martijn J. and Tillaart, Sander P.M. van den and Krol, Maarten S. (2011) Risks in hydrological modelling due to uncertainties in
discharge determination.
In: Gunther Bloschl & Kuni Takeuchi & Sharad Jain & Andreas Farnleitner & Andreas Schumann (Eds.), Risk in Water Resources Management. IAHS publication (347). IAHS Press, pp. 95-100. ISBN 9781907161223

open access
Abstract:Uncertainties in discharge determination may have serious consequences for hydrological
modelling and resulting discharge predictions affecting flood and drought risk assessment and decision
making. The aim of this study is to quantify the effect of discharge errors on parameters and performance of
a conceptual hydrological model for discharge prediction applied to two catchments. Four error sources in
discharge determination are considered: a combination of systematic and random measurement errors
without autocorrelation; random measurement errors with autocorrelation; hysteresis in the discharge-water
level relation; and effects of an outdated discharge–water level relation. Results show that systematic errors
and an outdated discharge–water level relation have a considerable influence on model performance, while
other error sources have a small to negligible effect. The effects of errors on parameters are large if the
effects on model performance are large, and vice versa. Parameters controlling the water balance are
influenced by systematic errors, and parameters related to the shape of the hydrograph are influenced by
random errors. Large effects of discharge errors on model performance and parameters should be taken into
account when using discharge predictions for risk assessment and decision making
Item Type:Book Section
Copyright:© 2011 IAHS Press
Engineering Technology (CTW)
Research Group:
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/publications/78686
Official URL:http://iahs.info/redbooks/a347/abs_347_0095.pdf
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