Sequential Monte Carlo simulation for the estimation of small reachability probabilities for stochastic hybrid systems


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Krystul, J. and Blom, H.A.P. (2006) Sequential Monte Carlo simulation for the estimation of small reachability probabilities for stochastic hybrid systems. In: 2006 Second International Symposium on Communications, Control and Signal Processing, 13-15 Mar 2006, Marrakech, Morocco.

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Abstract:The problem of estimating the probability that a system reaches a given set within some time horizon is considered. Standard Monte Carlo methods for reachability probability estimation do not require specific assumptions on the system under consideration. However, they are computationally demanding when the probability to be estimated is small. An Interacting Particle System (IPS) approach has been developed for the estimation of small reachability probabilities for diffusion processes. IPS has then been extended so as to estimate small reachability probabilities for a certain family of stochastic hybrid processes, namely switching diffusions. This contribution further improves the hybrid IPS method by adopting an importance sampling approach that uses the interaction equations characterizing stochastic hybrid systems.
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item
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Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science (EEMCS)
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Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/publications/63930
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