Impacts of trends and uncertainties in river flooding due to climate change


Booij, M.J. and Vreugdenhil, C.B. (1999) Impacts of trends and uncertainties in river flooding due to climate change. In: The impact of climate change on flooding and sustainable river management. UNSPECIFIED, pp. 297-308.

Abstract:Projected climate changes will have an effect on frequencies and duration of
river flooding and therefore on design criteria for dikes or on risk assessment. In
addition to existing sources of uncertainty, extremes and variability of climatological
input will change. To deal with this problem the purpose of this project can be split into
two main parts. First, to identify possible effects of climate changes on extreme
discharges of rivers and particularly the uncertainty involved. Second, to determine the
appropriate level of modelling needed to predict such effects taking into account the
uncertainties. The major subsystems are climate, catchment and river. Important aspects
are the additional uncertainty introduced by each subsystem and the appropriate level of
modelling a subsystem. In this paper some preliminary excersises to address these
questions with respect to catchment and river are shown, based on very schematic
models not representing any particular catchment.
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Engineering Technology (CTW)
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