A two-step approach to propagate rating curve uncertainty in Elbe decision support system


Xu, Yueping and Holzhauer, Harriette and Booij, Martijn J. (2005) A two-step approach to propagate rating curve uncertainty in Elbe decision support system. In: XXXI International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research Congress, 11-16 September 2005, Seoul, Korea.

Abstract:The relationships between water level and discharge along the river channel are vital for
decision support systems in river basin management. Normally the reliability of the so-called
rating curves along the river channel depends greatly on the accuracy and duration of the
measured discharge and water level data. In the Elbe Decision Support System (DSS), the
rating curves are combined with the HEC-6 model to investigate the effects of river
engineering measures on the Elbe river system. Under such situations, the uncertainty
originated from the HEC-6 model is of great importance for the reliability of the rating curves.
This paper presents a two-step approach to analyze the uncertainty in the rating curves and
propagate it into the vegetation model used in the Elbe DSS. The first step is to identify the
uncertainty sources. An analytical method is adopted to propagate the uncertainty sources into
the final rating curves. The second step is to propagate the uncertainties in the rating curves
into the model outputs of the vegetation model using Monte Carlo Analysis. By this two-step
uncertainty analysis approach, the uncertainty in the rating curves is successfully propagated
into the vegetation model in the Elbe DSS. The final Monte Carlo Simulation results show
large uncertainties in the model outputs.
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item
Engineering Technology (CTW)
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Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/publications/61940
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