Uncertainty in water level predictions due to various calibrations


Warmink, J.J. and Booij, M.J. and Klis, H. van der and Hulscher, S.J.M.H. (2007) Uncertainty in water level predictions due to various calibrations. In: Proceedings International Conference on Adaptive and Integrative Water Management (CAIWA), 12-15 November 2007, Basel, Switzerland. .

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Abstract:The modelling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties, resulting
in uncertain model results. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of uncertainties
is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model results and
the usefulness of results in decision making processes. This case study
comprises an uncertainty analysis of the effect of the discharge data used
for calibration on the water levels.
The roughness value of the main channel is calibrated on eight different
water levels to assess the influence of the data used for calibration on the
uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison of the data used for calibration
with verification model results gives insight in the effects of extrapolation
of the calibration parameter.
It is concluded that the uncertainties in the roughness coefficient of the
main channel results in a total uncertainty up to 20 cm in predicted water
levels similar to water level used for calibration. This indicates that extrapolation
of the roughness coefficient introduces significant uncertainty in
design water level calculations.
Item Type:Book Section
Engineering Technology (CTW)
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