Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding


Booij, Martijn Jan (2002) Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding. thesis.

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Abstract:Global climate change is likely to increase temperatures, change precipitation patterns
and probably raise the frequency of extreme events. Impacts of climate change on river
flooding may be considerable and may cause enormous economical, social and
environmental damage and even loss of lives. This necessitates the application of robust
and accurate flood estimation procedures to provide a strong basis for investments in
flood protection measures with climate change.
A broad palette of models is available to fulfil this requirement. More complex models
generally have larger data requirements and computational costs, but may result in
smaller model output uncertainties and associated costs. It would seem that an optimum
complexity associated with minimum total costs or uncertainty exists. This raises the
question what such an appropriate model should look like given the specific modelling
objective and research area. Or which physical processes and data should be
incorporated and which mathematical process formulations should be used at which
spatial and temporal scale, to obtain an appropriate model level?
Therefore, the main objectives of this study are the determination of the appropriate
model complexity dependent on modelling objective and research area and the
assessment of the climate change impact on river flooding with an appropriate model.
The Meuse basin in Belgium and France serves as an application area in this thesis. The
first objective is dealt with in chapter 2, 3, 4 and 5 and constitutes the main part of this
thesis. The second objective is mainly treated in chapter 4 and 6.
Item Type:Thesis
Engineering Technology (CTW)
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