Uncertainty analysis at large scales: limitations and subjectivity of current practices - a water quality case study

Bijlsma, R.M and Groenendijk, P. and Blind, M.W. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2007) Uncertainty analysis at large scales: limitations and subjectivity of current practices - a water quality case study. Water science & technology, 56 (6). pp. 1-9. ISSN 0273-1223

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Abstract:	Uncertainty analysis for large-scale model studies is a challenging activity that requires a different approach to uncertainty analysis at a smaller scale. However, in river basin studies, the practice of uncertainty analysis at a large scale is mostly derived from practice at a small scale. The limitations and inherent subjectivity of some current practices and assumptions are identified, based on the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis exploring the effects of input data and parameter uncertainty on surface water nutrient concentration. We show that: (i) although the results from small- scale sensitivity analysis are often applied at larger scales, this is not always valid; (ii) the current restriction of the uncertainty assessment to uncertainty types with a strong evidence base gives structurally conservative estimates; (iii) uncertainty due to bias is usually not assessed, but it may easily outweigh the effects of variability; (iv) the uncertainty bandwidth may increase for higher aggregation levels, although the opposite is the standard assumption.
Item Type:	Article
Copyright:	© 2007 IWA Publishing
Faculty:	Engineering Technology (CTW)
Research Group:	Water Engineering and Management (WEM)
Link to this item:	http://purl.utwente.nl/publications/58348
Official URL:	http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2007.580
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