Uncertainty analysis at large scales: limitations and subjectivity of current practices - a water quality case study

Share/Save/Bookmark

Bijlsma, R.M and Groenendijk, P. and Blind, M.W. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2007) Uncertainty analysis at large scales: limitations and subjectivity of current practices - a water quality case study. Water science & technology, 56 (6). pp. 1-9. ISSN 0273-1223

[img]PDF
Restricted to UT campus only
: Request a copy
179Kb
Abstract:Uncertainty analysis for large-scale model studies is a challenging activity that requires a different approach to uncertainty analysis at a smaller scale. However, in river basin studies, the practice of uncertainty analysis at a large scale is mostly derived from practice at a small scale. The limitations and inherent subjectivity of some current practices and assumptions are identified, based on the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis exploring the effects of input data and parameter uncertainty on surface water nutrient concentration. We show that: (i) although the results from small- scale sensitivity analysis are often applied at larger scales, this is not always valid; (ii) the current restriction of the uncertainty assessment to uncertainty types with a strong evidence base gives structurally conservative estimates; (iii) uncertainty due to bias is usually not assessed, but it may easily outweigh the effects of variability; (iv) the uncertainty bandwidth may increase for higher aggregation levels, although the opposite is the standard assumption.
Item Type:Article
Copyright:© 2007 IWA Publishing
Faculty:
Engineering Technology (CTW)
Research Group:
Link to this item:http://purl.utwente.nl/publications/58348
Official URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2007.580
Export this item as:BibTeX
EndNote
HTML Citation
Reference Manager

 

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Metis ID: 245597